Friday 2 January 2015

Future is one thing, which no one mustn't dare predict.

Before anyone reads this post they must first forgive my naivety of the attempt. I however dare write the following;
Year 2014 was Narendra Modi's non-stop party. Mr Modi last year invited entire India with promises, slogans, dreams, hopes, shibboleth; anything he could conjure for a party, that he presumes should last for 10 years at the minimum. Then there are 2 young challengers in the political space c.f. Arvind Kejriwal aka AK, AK-47, Muffler-man etc. and Rahul Gandhi aka baba, prince, shahzade, pappu etc. And don't forget in the last years party Mr Kejriwal peeped-in briefly but left early due to some unavoidable commitments elsewhere !!!.

Now, as we have already moved into 2015, I observe the re-emergence of the anger against the system (that turned Kejriwal into an instant messiah in 2014). Earlier, Modi had managed to replace by some hope that in the future a robust administrative system for national governance would emerge (rightly or wrongly). Both Kejriwal and Rahul have been acting in haste and then regretting in leisure. Same is true for other opportunistic parties like, newly emerging anti-Modi United Janta Party (soup of unlikely tastes put together) and others like BSP, MNS, TMC, DMK and many smaller fringe parties spread across this nation etc. will find it difficult (very difficult indeed) to fill the constructive / and or relevant political space in the next 5 years in India. 
For the one remaining Kejriwal, a long fight therefore awaits. Battle for Delhi has returned to be fought with vengeance in Feb 2015. This battle to my mind would be the real test for AK and AAP, his supporters and even more importantly his hidden sympathisers. AK's party is extremely low on resources; number of whole timers are low but he has mostly dedicated cadres, who badly deserve (need) a booster dose of victory.
If AK and his party manages to survive in political wilderness, Kejriwal, mostly certainly has extremely bright future. Do you know, Why? Because Kejriwal will be the only eligible claimant to the space being abdicated by the Congress (slowly but surely) and its heir apparent c.f. Rahul baba and his ardent fan Mr Singhji in 2014. And when the tide turns against Modi's (airy dreams of achche din, good governance, smart cities, India on the top of the world etc. etc. (which most likely will because in politics nothing stays forever) it always changes, either today or tomorrow—Kejriwal will by default, become his numero uno adversary not only in Delhi but by my most conservative estimates at least in the North and the West India.

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